boom or bust

I'm a big fan of Carol Lloyd's column "Surreal Estate" in the SF Chronicle. I'm fascinated by the ties between home, land, earth, and economics.

I think about these things each time I go to Las Vegas, since this town is the latest housing boom. People walking away with double their house price in 2 years time, something that takes most areas 15-20 years to do. I myself took the gamble 2 years ago and put down some money on a plot of land just to see what this was all about.

Each time we drive through Vegas there is yet another tract housing neighborhood going up with names like Aberdeen, and Summerlin, and Springs Valley. And people are coming with their cash in droves to buy into this boom. Many from the higher priced coasts (SF, LA, San Diego). Aloha Air has a direct flight to Vegas since many Hawaiians decided to retire there as well. But I wonder about the people who live in Vegas, the ones who work in the casinos like my uncle and cousins. Tourism is the one big industry there thus far. No big tech, no science. UNLV has courses in health care and hotel management.

Gamblers only tell you about their big wins, they rarely tell you about their losses. Like most booms, there is an underside to them, the bust. Everyone tries to get rich, but not everyone does. My family has been fortunate that they were able to get jobs: nursing homes, janitors, help desks at casinos, elevator operator, retail. They were fortunate too that they got their houses when the average Las Vegas resident who earns on average $40,000 per year could still afford them.

The neighborhood newsletter lists a dozen different babysitting services. Las Vegas never sleeps, neither do its workers, someone has to watch the kids. My cousins tell me of a 16 and over club on Wednesday nights. The schools are brand new, they can't build them fast enough. But there isn't a whole lot else out here. My other cousin says that dating is the pasttime for teenagers: hookin' up, breakin' up. Not much else to do.

In many ways, Las Vegas is starting to be like Hawaii in that its housing prices are outpacing the average income. There are more and more signs saying "discount for Nevada residents." Californians with their imperviousness to high prices have pushed the market here.

My parents knew of my uncle's neighbor who worked two jobs in SF, left to buy a house in Las Vegas, but was forced to sell that house and move back when he couldn't find a job to pay his mortgage. Like the 49ers in the gold rush that brought people to California, these prospecters bet it all thinking you can't lose.

The housing "boom" is mostly for the new houses. Older neighborhoods take 10-15 years to double in price. Those neighborhoods didn't build in flash flood protection like the newer ones. Their streets become raging rivers in a matter of minutes.

Other than gambling (every neighborhood has its own casino, so locals don't have to go to the Strip with the tourists), the other pasttime here is shopping. Every mall it seems is really an outlet. Every Target is a Target Greatland. Even the Sears is massive. If the 24/7 neon dazzle of gambling doesn't get you, perhaps the neon sale signs at Walmart will. The same stores, the same malls, the same houses, the same streets that go on forever. It's as if the people have mirrored the vastness and repetition of the desert.

Vegas sells itself on our dreams. Dreams of getting rich quick, hitting the jackpot, owning our own homes with lawns and large rooms. A few get lucky and find an oasis, the rest of us get sand.